**Author** David Graser, Yavapai College, Prescott, AZ (David_Graser@yc.edu)

**Abstract**

This project helps students to examine how the likelihood of having a tax return examined is influenced by whether the taxpayer requests a refund or not. This is one of the last projects I use in Finite Math so students are expected to attack the problem with a limited number of scaffolding resources.

- Content Area – Conditional probability, Baye’s Rule
- Time Frame – 2 to 3 weeks with mini-lectures
- Published – November 3, 2010
- Keywords – probability, conditional probability, Baye’s Rule

**Project Content**

**Scaffolding Resources**

**Handout: Baye’s Theorem Example** (DOC | PDF)

**Handout: Baye’s Rule and Medical Testing** (DOC | PDF)

**Notes**

- The intent of this problem is to have students compute P(examined | refund) using Baye’s Rule.
- Interpreting which probabilities the numbers correspond to is the most challenging aspect of this project.
- This problem may also be solved using a contingency table.